The much anticipated storm of the year, El Niño, sparked questions among Southern Californians whether it would benefit the drought, especially with the high winds and rain from this past weekend.
The conditions from the biggest storm of the season rose water levels in California’s two biggest water storage facilities, Folsom Lake near Sacramento and Lake Oroville near Butte County in Northern California, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System, but the storm did not affect the drought.
Although hopes run high for the phenomenon to bring some relief to drought-affected areas, El Niño brings no guarantee of more rain or snow where it is most needed, as other unpredictable weather and climate factors can impact seasonal precipitation totals and location in addition to El Nino, according to NIDIS.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a drought outlook for January 2016, which indicates an improvement for the coast but a worsening or continuation of the drought in the central region.
Lake Folsom rose 44 feet in over a month and Lake Oroville rose 20 feet, according to NIDIS. This does not mean drought conditions will get better, but the following months should provide more information on the effects of the storm.
How much water the state has accumulated from the snowpack during the past winter season has yet to be seen in March and April, California state climatologist Michael Anderson said. But he said he feels a “cautious optimism” and said that “we’re better than we have been.”
On a larger scale, runoff from melting snow feeds streams and rivers that supply water for agriculture and cities. In managed watersheds, earlier melting of snow can change when and how much water is available for various uses, the NOAA explained.
Parts of California, mostly central, are in the D4: Exceptional Drought category for drought intensity, the most severe case according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor graphic from the National Mitigation Center.
This drought has unique characteristics never seen before and set a new record low in 2015 for snowpack accumulation due to warmer temperatures during the storm, pushing the snowline higher than usual decreasing a chance for snow pack, Anderson said.
Below-normal precipitation is more likely in Southern California in the next 10-day forecast, February 2-6, and many of the larger reservoir levels in Northern California and southern Oregon are below half capacity, according to Mark Svoboda from the National Drought Mitigation Center in his summary of the current national drought in the West.
More research is needed for information on the long-term drought.
The long-term drought has no predictability, but according to Anderson, a research community is in place made up of research scientists from NASA, NOAA and universities including the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and UC San Diego.
“On the short-term, most of California has had a good winter (wet season), and this has allowed many of the short-term indicators that are analyzed to show positive results,” Brian A. Fuchs, Associate Geoscientist and Climatologist for the NDMC, said in an email. “But, after 3-4 years of drought, the long-term impacts are still hanging on and it may be into next year before the drought is improved enough to have all of California drought-free.”
