The United States and Russia are on the brink of another Cold War.
On Feb. 7, 2014, the Obama administration announced that it was considering arming the Ukrainian military as a possible solution to end the crisis in eastern Ukraine, according to the BBC.
To even think of escalating the conflict by arming Ukraine would be economically detrimental to both Russian and Ukrainian civilians alike.
These potential Cold War-esque diplomatic relations could disrupt the efforts to bring stability to troubled regions such as the Middle East, since the U.S. and Russia both sit on the UN Security Council.
Over the past month, violence has flared up as pro-Russian militias sought to take control of key towns in the Donetsk and Luhansk territories, both of which have substantial Russian speaking populations.
The crisis in the country can trace its roots back to the ouster of pro-Russian Viktor Yanakovich, the former president of Ukraine, in February 2014. Ukrainians protested a few months earlier when Yanakovich refused to sign a loan deal with the European Union that would have strengthened economic ties between the country and the rest of Europe. Yanakovich had hopes for a bigger loan and cheaper gas prices for Russia in exchange for better Ukrainian-Russian ties.
Most Ukrainians support EU integration and maintaining closer ties with the EU over maintaining ties with Russia, according to a Gallup Poll conducted in December 2014.
With the ouster of Yanakovich, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a more nationalist position reflecting western Ukrainian attitudes, and sought to pass a law making Ukrainian the only official language of the country.
Despite the fact that the law was vetoed, many Russian speakers in the southern and eastern parts of the country felt alienated and quickly began to form militias according to Russia Today in late February.
On Mar. 14, 2014, the Russian majority territory of Crimea was annexed by the Russian Federation, largely supported by its residents.
The UN general assembly voted on Mar. 27 to pass a resolution condemning the Crimea annexation as an illegal seizure.
A few weeks later, pro-Russian militias had successfully taken control from the Ukrainian military in significant parts of the eastern half of the country, most notably the city of Donetsk.
Violence has become a common reality in the region, with over 5,000 deaths currently recorded as of February 2015, according to the BBC.
Despite Russian denial of direct military aid to the Ukrainian separatists, in November 2014, The Daily Beast reported that there were over 7,000 Russian troops in the Ukraine and over 40,000 more on the eastern border.
To understand why Russia has put so much effort into continuing its influence in Ukraine, one need only to look back to the end of the Cold War. During the reunification of Germany, former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker negotiated with former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev.
They agreed that, in exchange for East Germany’s admittance into NATO, there would be no expansion of NATO into former Warsaw Pact countries. Although this agreement was not legally binding, it served as a major milestone to the U.S.’s thawing relations with the USSR, according to a 1990 analysis by the New York Times
However, once the Soviet Union completely dissolved in 1991, NATO began accepting former Soviet Republics and allies such as Estonia, Poland and the Czech Republic as members during the next two decades.
Although the U.S. and Russia were officially on good terms in the ‘90s, the Russian economy suffered greatly during that period due to failed programs that shifted the old centralized Soviet economy into free market capitalism. The election of Vladimir Putin as president in 2000 led to the restoration of Russia’s economy and former position as a major world power.
Putin rightfully views the continuing expansion of NATO and the European Union as a threat to Russian autonomy, especially since the U.S. still maintains an economy eight times the size of Russia’s, according to the CIA World Fact Book in 2013.
Current U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia have caused the Ruble to go down as much as 10 percent in value in one day, according to Anders Åslund, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in 2015.
Giving arms to the Ukraine could easily backfire and create more headaches down the road for the U.S., just as it did when the U.S. supplied Islamist rebels who fought the USSR in Afghanistan during the 1980s, then later formed radical groups such as the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
Instead of arming Ukraine, the United States could use those financial resources to provide higher education and lower cost healthcare to its citizens, so that they do not make similar mistakes in the future.
