The Long Beach State men’s basketball team came into this season with one thing on its mind—redemption.
Losing to UC Santa Barbara in the last two Big West Conference tournament championship games has cost this squad its primary goal: a NCAA tournament berth.
With the return of the senior core of Casper Ware, Larry Anderson, T.J. Robinson and Eugene Phelps, along with the addition of the long, athletic junior college transfer James Ennis, the ‘Niners have been garnering a considerable amount of national attention.
LBSU is hoping that with its difficult non-conference schedule, they can attain an invite to “The Big Dance” without needing to win the Big West tournament, but an at-large bid is not guaranteed.
As of now, LBSU is ranked 41st in the country in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). RPI is made up of a teams winning percentage (25 percent), its opponents’ winning percentage (50 percent) and the winning percentage of the teams that LBSU’s opponents have played (25 percent).
The ‘Niners have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation so far this season. Including games on the road against then No. 9-ranked Pittsburgh, No. 13 San Diego State, No. 7 North Carolina, No. 5 Kansas, then No. 6 Louisville, then No. 15 Xavier and No. 22 Kansas State.
The 49ers opponents average win total from the 2010-11 season is 26.2, and at the completion of this season, the ‘Niners will have played eight teams who had 20 or more wins last year and six teams who made an appearance in the 2011 NCAA tournament.
Unfortunately for LBSU, a few of the highly touted opponents it has faced have since dropped out of the top-25 rankings.
The win over Pitt doesn’t look as good on paper now as it did on Nov. 16. The recent struggles of the Panthers, who dropped out of the top-25 rankings and now hold a record of just 11-9 overall and 0-7 in Big East Conference play, have put a damper on the magnitude of the victory.
What would have been the ‘Niners best win, may no longer be considered as such in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee members when it comes down to deciding whether The Beach will be on the receiving end of an at-large bid.
The victory over Pitt should not be considered to be watered-down, though. At the time, the Panthers were the No. 9 team in the nation. LBSU waltzed into the Petersen Events Center and ended Pitt’s 58-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents.
The 49ers second best win came against then No.15-ranked Xavier in the first round of the Diamond Head Classic. The Musketeers were missing one of their two top scorers in junior guard Mark Lyons due to suspension, but they did have their best all-around player, senior guard Tu Holloway. LBSU downed the Musketeers by 10-points, 68-58.
Another win that the selection committee should keep in mind was Saturday’s throttling of conference-foe UC Santa Barbara—the team who has kept this squad out of March Madness the past two years. The ‘Niners silenced the Thunderdome en route to a 71-48 pummeling of the Gauchos.
If good losses do exist, LBSU has some premium ones.
The 49ers dropped a close overtime decision to now No. 13 SDSU at Viejas Arena. The Beach had the Aztecs on the ropes, but was unable to deliver the knockout punch in the waning minutes, which led to a four-point loss.
Next, LBSU faced the daunting task of beating then No. 6 Louisville at the KFC YUM! Center. The Cardinals are 12-2 at home this season, but battled with The Beach throughout the contest before taking control at the end of the game to take the 13-point win.
The ‘Niners then traveled to No. 5 Kansas in early December to do battle with the Jayhawks. Again, LBSU gave a perennial top program all they could handle, losing by only eight points, 88-80.
The Beach nearly clipped No. 7 North Carolina on the road as well. The 49ers held a five-point lead at halftime, and hung tough with the Tar Heels throughout the second period. Carolina was just too much in the end, defeating the ‘Niners 84-78.
In the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic, the ‘Niners lost to No. 22 Kansas State. The Wildcats were 9-1 at that point, and coming off four straight victories before beating the ‘Niners, 77-60, to make it five in a row.
The overwhelming smudge on the ‘Niners resume this season is the loss at Montana. LBSU held a six-point halftime lead, but were unable to close the deal in front of a hostile Grizzly crowd.
The good news for the 49ers is that Pitt and Louisville may have already hit rock bottom. If the Panthers and Cardinals are able to recapture some of their early season form and knock off a top Big East opponent, LBSU can only benefit from it.
Another way LBSU can earn a NCAA tourney berth is to run the table in the Big West regular season. While it’s not a top conference in the nation, it still offers quality opponents. The ‘Niners are off to a good start so far, amassing a 7-0 mark going into this weekend’s games.
The parity of college basketball this season will also help The Beach. The only undefeated team is No. 11 Murray State. The teams who are considered to be the cream of the crop also have a bad loss (or two) to their names.
When it’s time to decide whether or not the 49ers are deserving of an at-large bid, the selection committee should keep in mind that the top-ranked teams are not the only ones handing out the beatings.
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